30-Year Mortgage Rates Holding Near 2-Month Low

Capping off a week of wild swings, 30-year mortgage rates held mostly steady Friday to remain near the two-month low registered Thursday. With just a few basis points of an uptick, the latest 30-year average is now 7.67%. Rate activity was mixed across other loan types, but few averages moved more than a few basis points.

Because rates vary widely across lenders, it's always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter what type of loan you're seeking.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: New Purchase

Friday saw the 30-year average's dramatic yo-yo pattern settle down, at least for a day, with a minor increase of just 3 basis points. Raising the average to 7.67%, 30-year rates are still very close to their lowest point since Sept. 14. The average is now also far below Oct. 17's peak reading of 8.45%, a 23-year high-water mark for 30-year loans.

Rates on 15-year loans, meanwhile, were flat Friday, holding at their lowest point since August. Averaging 6.94%, 15-year mortgage rates are sitting well beneath the record peak of 7.59% recorded on Oct. 23, which was the highest 15-year average since 2000.

Jumbo 30-year rates also marched in place Friday, remaining at 6.94%. Though daily jumbo rates were not available before 2009, it's estimated that the 7.52% peak on Oct. 19 was the most expensive average for jumbo 30-year loans in more than 20 years.

The only new purchase loan averages to move more than a few points were the VA 30-year fixed, which climbed 14 basis points, and the 10/6 ARM average, which saw a drop of 16 points.

Today's Mortgage Rate Averages: Refinancing

All but two refinancing rate averages were flat or close to flat Friday. The 30-year refi average slid a minor 3 basis points, narrowing the gap between 30-year new purchase and refi rates to 42 basis points. The 15-year refi average meanwhile dipped just 2 basis points, and the jumbo 30-year refi average marked time.

Only the VA 30-year and 5/6 ARM refi averages showed notable movement, with gains of 9 and 13 basis points, respectively.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan type, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

The states with the lowest 30-year new purchase averages were Vermont, North Carolina, Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Arkansas, and Tennessee, while the states with the highest averages were Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, Washington, and Idaho.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

• The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in Nov. 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Since that time, the Fed has been aggressively raising the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it does not directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

However, given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over the last 18 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in an upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed has opted to hold rates steady at its last two meetings, which concluded Sept. 20 and Nov. 1. Though Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that another rate increase is still possible at a future meeting, encouraging inflation data released Nov. 14 has since dampened almost all expectations of future increases. The Fed’s next rate announcement will be made Dec. 13.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.